Variations on a theme: Clifford’s parallelism in elliptic space

In 1873, W. K. Clifford introduced a notion of parallelism in the three-dimensional elliptic space that, quite surprisingly, exhibits almost all properties of Euclidean parallelism in ordinary space. The purpose of this paper is to describe the genesis of this notion in Clifford’s works and to provide a historical analysis of its reception in the investigations of F. Klein, L. Bianchi, G. Fubini, and E. Bortolotti. Special emphasis is placed upon the important role that Clifford’s parallelism played in the development of the theory of connections.     

避孕压力为啥由女性承担

<正>也不是没人研究过男性避孕药,只是面对这"野火烧不尽,春风吹又生"的精子们,科学家们绞尽脑汁却依旧所获不多。避孕,是男女两个人的事,但在选择避孕方式上,女性安装宫内节育器的比例要比男性做输精管结扎术的比例大得多,市面上的避孕药品也几乎都偏向于女性。像宫内节育器这样的避孕措施对女性的伤害还真不小。最可怕的是有很多女性即使带上宫内节育器还会有怀孕的情况,而这样的情况往往会导致宫外孕。     

Methods for backcasting,nowcasting and forecasting using factor‐MIDAS: With an application to Korean GDP

We utilize mixed‐frequency factor‐MIDAS models for the purpose of carrying out backcasting, nowcasting, and forecasting experiments using real‐time data. We also introduce a new real‐time Korean GDP dataset, which is the focus of our experiments. The methodology that we utilize involves first estimating common latent factors (i.e., diffusion indices) from 190 monthly macroeconomic and financial series using various estimation strategies. These factors are then included, along with standard variables measured at multiple different frequencies, in various factor‐MIDAS prediction models. Our key empirical findings as follows. (i) When using real‐time data, factor‐MIDAS prediction models outperform various linear benchmark models. Interestingly, the “MSFE‐best” MIDAS models contain no autoregressive (AR) lag terms when backcasting and nowcasting. AR terms only begin to play a role in “true” forecasting contexts. (ii) Models that utilize only one or two factors are “MSFE‐best” at all forecasting horizons, but not at any backcasting and nowcasting horizons. In these latter contexts, much more heavily parametrized models with many factors are preferred. (iii) Real‐time data are crucial for forecasting Korean gross domestic product, and the use of “first available” versus “most recent” data “strongly” affects model selection and performance. (iv) Recursively estimated models are almost always “MSFE‐best,” and models estimated using autoregressive interpolation dominate those estimated using other interpolation methods. (v) Factors estimated using recursive principal component estimation methods have more predictive content than those estimated using a variety of other (more sophisticated) approaches. This result is particularly prevalent for our “MSFE‐best” factor‐MIDAS models, across virtually all forecast horizons, estimation schemes, and data vintages that are analyzed.     

冻结黏土的强度与变形特性及参数研究

为了更全面地分析冻土的强度与变形特性,以皖北某矿取样的原状黏土为研究对象,进行不同温度(-5℃、-10℃、-15℃)下的单轴抗压强度试验和三轴剪切强度试验.试验结果表明,在试验温度下,试样单轴抗压强度的应力-应变曲线为应变软化型;试验条件下,冻土三轴剪切应力-应变曲线可以用双曲线模型描述.随着温度的降低,冻土的单轴抗压强度和弹性模量均增加.初始弹性模量和极限偏应力均与围压呈正相关,与温度呈负相关.冻土的抗剪强度随围压增加而增大,随温度增加而减小.通过冻土三轴试验得到的抗剪强度指标推算单轴抗压强度,可以为人工冻结法施工提供理论依据.     

Synopsis of ‘onychocellid’ cheilostome bryozoan genera

Genera assigned to the cheilostome bryozoan family Onychocellidae are revised based on the skeletal morphology of the type species and, when possible, the type material of these species. All genera are illustrated using scanning electron micrographs, some for the first time. Onychocellidae, which ranges from the Cenomanian stage of the Cretaceous to the Recent, has been a particularly troublesome family because of poorly defined generic concepts correlating at least in part with a paucity of morphological characters. Thirty-five genera are described in this review. Of these, two are recognised as subjective synonyms of other onychocellid genera (Rhebasia and Semieschara), one cannot be sufficiently characterised from the type material (Collura), and two are new: Aechmellina gen. nov. (type species Aechmella falcifera) and Kamilocella gen. nov. (type species Eschara latilabris). A neotype is chosen for Rhagasostoma hexagonum, the type species of Rhagasostoma. A key is provided to assist in the identification of onychocellid genera. Phylogenetic relationships between genera remain obscure and are unlikely to be fully resolved based on skeletal morphology alone. The family as an entity is loosely circumscribed and almost certainly paraphyletic, containing stem genera of other anascan familes such as Lunulitidae, Coscinopleuridae and Aspidostomatidae.

www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:org:pub:63A31AD2-F049-42CB-A45B-557014DC286E     

体育消费的学理脉络、统计内容及其实施策略

采用文献资料法，依次从学理脉络、统计内容及其实施策略展开关于体育消费以及体育消费统计的讨论。认为：从学理上看，体育消费作为一个复杂概念，既牵涉宏观经济社会发展，也与文化意识形态紧密联系；而作为准确把握体育市场、把脉体育发展情况的基础性工作之一，体育消费统计则应该避免将体育消费概念泛化。应以体育政策为导向，面向人民的美好生活需要，对接国民经济统计制度，考虑建构以“体育教育与培训、体育文化与娱乐、体育保健与康复、体育传媒与信息、体育衣着耐用品、其他体育用品与服务、个人间接体育消费”为核心指标的统计框架，并通过长效工作方案的设计使体育消费统计工作制度化，通过统计调查制度的建构使体育消费统计执行有效化，通过统计数据的测算推算使体育消费统计结果精准化。     

基于计算实验的流感大流行预防策略

流感是人类健康的重大威胁之一.为探索预防新型流感大流行的有效策略,建立了北京市计算流行病模型,评估了边境口岸检疫,病例治疗,病例隔离,社会关系抗病毒预防以及免疫接种措施对四种新型流感大流行的预防效能.结果表明:边境口岸检疫对于预防新型流感大流行的作用非常有限;积极的病例治疗可预防传播能力类似于2009年A(H1N1)的新型流感大流行;高强度的病例治疗和病例隔离可预防传播能力类似于1957年A(H2N2)的新型流感大流行;对于传播能力类似于1918年A(H1N1)的新型流感,在高强度病例治疗和病例隔离的基础上须对病例的社会关系进行抗病毒预防才有可能预防大流行;而对于具有超级传播能力的新型流感(R_03.3),必须依靠有效的广谱疫苗才能预防大流行.研究结果对于进一步完善我国应对流感大流行的应急准备与处置计划具有参考价值.     

考虑交付质量和交付期约束的移动应用供应链决策与协调

针对由ERP厂商、APP厂商与客户企业组成的移动应用供应链,考虑客户企业对软件质量与交付时间存在约束,ERP厂商的售前服务会影响软件开发质量等问题,构建了基于软件质量与交付时间的收益模型,分析了分散与集中决策下双方的最优决策策略以及APP厂商的售后维护成本分担比例与应急成本对双方决策水平的影响,比较了两种决策下对应的合作绩效,提出了双向成本分担与提前交付奖励的供应链协调策略.研究表明:随客户企业的质量感知度增大,ERP厂商通过适当延长交付时间产生的质量改进效应大于延长交付期产生的负效应,使总效应增加;当客户企业的交付期敏感程度小于临界值时,ERP厂商可通过交付高质量软件产品提高自身利润,当交付期敏感程度大于临界值时,可通过提前交付提高自身利润;通过对供应链进行协调,可使原本因无法满足客户企业对质量与交付期的要求而使双方放弃合作的情形变得可合作,使原本可合作时双方的合作绩效与利润更高;当APP厂商独自承担售后维护成本时,实施供应链协调产生的价值大于双方共同承担时对应的值.     

The modernity of Dedekind’s anticipations contained in What are numbers and what are they good for?

Archive for History of Exact Sciences - We show that Dedekind, in his proof of the principle of definition by mathematical recursion, used implicitly both the concept of an inductive cone from an...